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Well, it’s no secret: the Atlanta Falcons have lost their way a bit here in 2019. 

Despite an early home win against the Philadelphia Eagles, the former NFC champions from 2016 stumbled into a chasm of darkness defensively after losing the anchor of their secondary, safety Keanu Neal. Since then, Atlanta has struggled  with multiple communication issues and a marked lack of effort on tape.

However, this is a “what have you done for me lately” league. And lately, the Falcons have been playing some of the best defense in the league.

Though they lost to Seattle several weeks ago, they held the potent Seahawks to three points in the second half and followed up that performance last week by holding Drew Brees and the Saints out of the end zone en route to a stunning 26-9 road win.

So what’s been the difference of late? Mainly, effort. Better communication. Nothing has really changed schematically: Dan Quinn likes to run Cover 3, and will man up at times in the red zone. They are aggressive with their fronts, and will move pieces around pre-snap. Though they have had a hard time finding a role for former first-round EDGE Vic Beasley, the Clemson product did manage 1.5 sacks against the Saints last week.

So the question is: what can Carolina to do to reverse this trend? Are there certain matchups the Panthers can exploit? We certainly believe there are, but it won’t come easy. Without further ado, let’s dive into the One Panther Place Film Room:

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Winning in the division. It’s everything in the NFL.

The Panthers have struggled within the NFC South. It’s no secret around these parts. In fact, Carolina has failed to post a winning record within the division since 2015.

When it comes to the Atlanta Falcons, the Panthers have not won a game against their I-85 rivals since November 2017–over two years ago.

Two weeks ago, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was on the hottest of hot seats, with his team spiraling out of control at 1-7. However, a dominant performance at New Orleans last week has opened up some eyes, and has given Atlanta some hope for the second half of the season.

It’s no secret what the Falcons like to do: pass the football. Atlanta has the most pass attempts in the league (2nd in passing yards/4th in touchdowns). However, it appears a pair of prominent weapons will be sidelined against Carolina.

Tight end Austin Hooper, Atlanta’s leading receiver, is unlikely to play as he recovers from a knee injury. Hooper was on pace for over 1,100 yards and has already grabbed six touchdowns this season, leading the team.

Meanwhile, veteran running back Devonta Freeman will likely miss Sunday’s game in Charlotte due to a foot injury. His 38 receptions ranks third among all Falcons this year, and his violent running style will be a significant void for Atlanta. 

Despite Freeman’s injury, Panthers fans shouldn’t sleep on his replacement. In fact, they should remember him fairly well. His name is Brian Hill, a third-year journeyman currently in his second stint with the Falcons.

The last time Atlanta traveled to Charlotte, Hill absolutely lit up the Panthers’ run defense. Week 16, 2018: a mere eight carries led to a 115-yard explosion on the ground.

That’s over 14 yards a pop.

Last week, Hill ran hard against the best run defense in the league: 20 carries for 61 yards. He also caught a touchdown pass from Matt Ryan in the Falcons’ 26-9 stunner over the Saints.

We wanted to take a closer look at what Atlanta does from a schematic standpoint offensively. You’ll see some similarities from what they’ve done in the past, but with the absence of Hooper and Freeman, I would expect to see some 10/00 personnel (4W/5W).

So how did Atlanta get back on track offensively? Let’s find out in today’s edition of Film Room:

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Follow the Formula

Carolina has won five games with Kyle Allen under center this year. The common thread with each of the wins? Sustaining a competitive balance for the first 30 minutes. The formula is very simple: lean heavily upon your strengths (zone blocking, 12 personnel, 5-7 runs for McCaffrey per quarter). Green Bay doesn’t have nearly the intensity in terms of coverages and talent as San Francisco does in the defensive backfield, but this is still a dangerous game for Allen. One key to Carolina’s win last week was scoring first. It means the world to this entire team for that to happen. It gives Allen a chance to relax and get into the flow of the game, while putting the opposition behind the eight ball, a place where Carolina’s defense can unleash their elite group of pass rushers. It’s a simple formula, and it all comes down to running the ball with consistency and purpose early against one of the worst run defenses in the league. To take it a step further, running off left guard and tackle has been a great rule of thumb for Green Bay’s opponents this year.

Rush Rodgers, With Caution

The idea with Aaron Rodgers in terms of a pass rush is to build a net around him. Think back to when Carolina struggled against Michael Vick. Now, that’s a bit of a different situation, granted. But the concept is still the same. You don’t want Aaron Rodgers moving laterally out of the pocket. Once he does break contain, often times aggressive comes through with some of his biggest, most backbreaking plays against the defense. Once again, in our m film review from Los Angeles last week, they did an exceptional job in pushing the pocket inside while maintaining leverage on the edge. The Chargers have their own version of the NASCAR package, and on several snaps, Melvin Ingram rushed from the inside, flanked by Joey Bosa to his left. That presented monumental challenges for assignments upfront. You’ll see Brian Burns on the edge quite a bit today, and I would assume a lot of Mario Addison inside of Burns.

The Screen Game

Carolina has not employed a very robust screen game since Newton’s absence. I would look for that to change a little bit today. Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine likes to bring pressure from both ends, and this would be a prime opportunity to utilize every type of screen you have: traditional HB screens, tunnel screens, TE screens. With DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey, you have two of the best RAC players in the game. It’s time to start giving them more opportunities with lead blockers. Norv Turner called a few of these plays last week with Moore, and they worked effectively.

It’s officially Fall.

The temps are ideal. The clocks have fallen back. And, just like clockwork, another season for the Carolina Panthers has reached its halfway point.

The Tennessee Titans are in Charlotte today. They bring with them a punishing style of offense, a fervent dedication to running the football, a physical, run-suffocating defensive , and a healthy +7 turnover differential.

Here are a few pre-game notes to get you ready for kickoff:

• The Titans have made the decision that Ryan Tannehill is their future. The former Dolphins signal caller makes his third start and looks to stay undefeated with a win against Carolina today. He has moved the offense with a higher degree of success than his predecessor, former number one overall pick Marcus Mariota. Tannehill is highly athletic—he played some WR in college. I’m not telling you to look out for any throwback gadget plays. Houston tried that against this defense, it failed miserably. But I wouldn’t entirely rule it out. And the stat sheet won’t show it, but Tannehill is mobile and might present some challenges if he gets the defense in a man coverage situation. I don’t think they need to assign a spy, but I do think they need to keep a close eye on that, situationally.

 

• One player you need to keep a close eye on today: Titans TE Jonnu Smith. With starter Delanie Walker out of the lineup, Smith has excelled, especially with his ability to get down the field and his prowess in the RAC game. You’re looking at 239 yards on 15 catches. That’s superb production and value. He also appears to be a personal favorite of Tannehill: 9 catches for 142 yards in Tannehill’s first two starts.
  

 

• Tennessee has a strong run defense. The pass defense isn’t terrible, but their bread and butter is run containment. The Titans have allowed just three rushing touchdowns on the season, which ranks 3rd in the NFL. They allow 3.9 yards per attempt, which ranks in the top 10. They’ve also held opponents under 90 yards rushing three times this year.

 

• Here’s a revealing stat: we told you Tennessee is +7 in the turnover differential this season. According to @pfref: The Titans have turned the ball over on just 5.3% of their offensive drives, while forcing turnovers on 13.4% of their opponents’ drives.