Blog

Opening day:

Never easy. Always unpredictable.

With a 30-27 loss in their home opener to the Los Angeles Rams, the Panthers squandered multiple opportunities through a series of unforced errors and a shade of bad luck. Carolina has now dropped 8 of their last 9 regular season games dating back to November 2018.

Here are a few things I observed, and some suggestions on a better way forward:

Carolina needs more explosive plays.

I continue to be discouraged by the lack of explosive plays in our offense. It plagued the Panthers in the preseason, and it has carried over into week one, as we anticipated. This is now a full blown RAC-dependent offense. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has a wide array RPO and short passing plays at his disposal, and it’s a fine a way to run an offense in the modern-day NFL. However, if your playmakers are not making plays, it turns into a Christian McCaffrey check down convention. 

DJ Moore, who has been widely regarded as one of the most improved players of the offseason, had a marginal game on Sunday. Moore received 10 targets, generated no explosive plays, and had a hand in two turnovers.

Look, I believe in Moore and have been one of his more vocal advocates. But he simply can’t put the ball in the other team’s hands. 

Speaking of explosive plays, the game featured a select few (thanks to our cutting-edge graphics department here)

Limiting the explosive Rams to four explosive plays is good work. I wasn’t entirely discouraged by the defensive performance. Los Angeles averaged 33 points per game last year. The Panthers held them under that total, and it would have been less if not for the short field they inherited from the untimely swing pass turnover.

A new wrinkle in coverage.

I was very happy to see Rivera deploy a dime (6 DB) defense multiple times. If you’ve followed our work, it’s no secret that we have been harping on this for ages. Kudos to the staff for spicing things up. The Rams had no idea what to do with the dime look initially, which led Goff eating a sack from CB James Bradberry. 

Unfortunately, they also caught Carolina with 12 men on the field, but I still like that they’re getting away from forcing linebackers to cover wideouts on 3rd and 7.

3-2-6 DIME: The Panthers flashed this personnel grouping (3 dl, 2lb, 6db) eight times in the first half: Carolina stopped the Rams 5-of-8 times. 

 

The Bull Ratio

The Bull Ratio (a quasi-game plan I developed years ago that has generally proven effective with Newton at the helm—see graphic below) was unachieved, although I give Norv Turner credit for sticking with this attack despite a negative game flow. The target distribution seems justified, and while it’s insane to never have McCaffery come off the field until the sun expands and consumes the planet in 5 billion years, he’s still their best receiver

This is a non-scientific method, and it doesn’t guarantee results each time. “Touches” represents carries or catches (a pass is not a “touch” for the QB). It’s a general set utilization guidelines for the way in which this roster is constructed:

I do wish the staff made more of an effort to get TE Ian Thomas involved. He was afforded one target, this after we spent a whole week chronicling Thomas as a potential matchup advantage against a 3-4 man coverage scheme. The Rams will put OLBs on TEs down the field. Tampa runs a similar system, so maybe the Panthers will correct this bit of personnel injustice before Thursday Night.

Cam isn’t Cam, unless he can be Cam.

I don’t like seeing Cam Newton registering 3 carries for -2 yards. We all know that the Panthers are a better team when he’s running. I understand the fear of having him take unnecessary hits to his shoulder, but you’re now making him a less dangerous version of himself by keeping him in the pocket. If the helicopter parenting of Newton is their new reality, it’s probably unwise to give him another contract. The team will have a hard time winning if they’re this focused on preventing an injury. 

Communication breakdown.

Who exactly is accountable for the earpiece malfunction? I’m assuming it’s the equipment manager, right? Perhaps in concert with the NFL? Regardless, this shouldn’t be happening in the year 2019. That ended up aiding a six-point swing in a three point loss. Little things.

When is the last time you saw the Patriots have an earpiece malfunction? It’s incredulous, and whoever is responsible for that disaster of a malfunction should be held to account for it. 

This is the NFL. The margins are razor thin. 

 

Pre-Game Notes: Rams at Panthers

I’m intrigued by the matchup of Panthers nickel corner Javien Elliot and the rotation of slot receivers for the Rams. Presumably, WR Cooper Kupp will see the majority of slot reps out of 11 personnel. Kupp has remarkably quick feet and unusual size for a slot specialist (6-2, 208). Elliott must prove his worth early on in this game, as Rams QB Jared Goff will be eager to utilize his highly-skilled safety valve after missing him last season to injury.

The special-teams situation for both teams is intriguing. For the Panthers, newly signed return man Ray Ray McCloud appears to be in line for reps today at punt and kick returner. This is a bold move by general manager Marty Hurney. The team was high on seventh-round draft pick Terry Godwin for most of camp, but after a strong pre-season opener, the rookie’s performance tailed off considerably. McCloud saw very limited action in Buffalo, but was a dynamic return specialist for Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers.

Panthers punter Michael Palardy looks to return to form from a couple of years ago after a bit of a down year in 2018. His net punting average fell from the top five in the league all the way down to 12 last season. In fact , in2017, both Palardy and Rams punter Johnny Hekker were ranked as the top two punters in the NFC in terms of net average. Palardy’s “lefty” directional kicking should present a challenge for Rams return specialist JoJo Natson. Also, be very mindful of the fake punt opportunities for Los Angeles. Special-teams coordinator John Fassell runs more of these than anybody around the league, and he’s been doing it for years with Hekker—a fantastic athlete who can do some pretty dynamic things with the ball in his hands. As odd as that sounds, keep an eye on it.

And of course, we will monitor the Panthers regular season debut of Cinderella story Joey Slye. After a 7-of-8 performance in the preseason which included a 59-yard boot, Hurney have Slye the keys to the car as Carolina placed long time kicker Graham Gano on injured reserve. Crucial as anything will be Slye’s poise and concentration on PAT’s. Carolina  has missed 12 extra points since 2015, most in the league.

The four Panthers I am closely scouting today:

Matt Paradis: we want to see how the new center in Carolina holds up against the fierce pass rush of Rams DT Aaron Donald. Paradis has struggled at times in the preseason with lesser-caliber opponents. This is his first year making line calls for the Panthers, as Ryan Kalil was in total command of this for Cam Newton’s entire career. Again, this is a tough matchup physically and mentally for the newcomer.

Curtis Samuel: this is where I think Carolina has an outstanding opportunity to exploit the back end of the Rams defense. You’ll see Samuel play outside more than inside today, and we’d like to see 10 exploit the Rams gambling CB Marcus Peters. Peters is one of the league’s elite talents on the perimeter, but often finds himself in trouble from looking in the backfield too soon and biting on double moves. From what we observes at training camp, I have little doubt: at least once or twice today, Carolina will take a deep shot with a stop and go or a deep post with Samuel.

Brian Burns. The rookie gets the start on his first ever NFL Sunday. This is a golden opportunity to showcase his remarkable speed and power. The Rams have a quality left tackle in veteran Andrew Whitworth, but even he struggled considerably in the Super Bowl against New England’s exotic mixed-bag of defensive fronts. Burns should be used as many other teams use their “joker” position backer—moving him around like a chess piece, giving him an opportunity to win matchups. I saw Bears EDGE threat Khalil Mack lined up at DT in the three technique the other night. You could even see this once or twice from Burns today. Anything to get him in a position to wreck Goff’s timing is worth a look. He has looked nothing short of stellar in the preseason. Now, let’s see if that translates into the regular season.

Cam Newton: obviously, all eyes are on Newton for several reasons. America wants to see how his foot really feels and if that will affect his role in the running game today. Newton’s ability to gain unplanned chunks of yards on the ground throughout a game often times proves to be the difference between a win and a loss. If Cam is relegated to the pocket on every snap, I feel less certain about Carolina’s chances to win this game.

I want to see if he sails the ball on his short/intermediate RPO throws. For as awesome as the deep ball looked in camp with the new shoulder, he still struggled at times with these tight window throws, with the common denominator being “high and behind”. If Newton has the freedom to make a few runs when called upon, and if the intermediate throws are on point, it could be a long day for the Rams defense.

Prediction:

These picks are always tough, especially in week one. Games are generally sloppy, as there is very little preseason of consequence to develop timing, while training camps have been highly watered-down in terms of contact and reps. I do expect some sloppy stuff on both sides, but I also expect a wide array  misdirection looks offensively from Panthers offensive coordinator Norv Turner. He didn’t run one bit of that in the preseason, but I can attest to the fact that he ran a considerable amount of misdirection passing in Spartanburg this year. It’s time to pull out the bag of tricks, confuse this front seven, and get them moving sideways. From there, lineup in the eye formation, as well as the spread, and pound Christian McCaffrey. They are yards to be had on the ground against this defense.

Defensively, I feel Carolina is going to have a decent amount of success mirroring what New England did in the Super Bowl. They won’t be as adept in man coverage, but Rivera does have the requisite pieces up front to show multiple looks and confuse the offensive line. The Rams have RB Todd Gurley 100% healthy and ready to go, and that presents somewhat of a challenge. Look for a healthy dose of screens to Gurley today, as this was something they did habitually before his injury last season.

Final score: Carolina 23, Los Angeles 20

Earlier this week, the OPP Film Room examined the Rams’ third-down offense, highlighting some of their highs and lows from Super Bowl 53. It’s time to take a closer look at the other side of the ball.

What do the Rams like to do on defense, particularly on third down?

There has been some roster turnover on defense for Los Angeles since last year. ILB Mark Barron was a liability in the run game and is no longer with the Rams. He was undersized and had trouble getting off blocks, as you will see in the film. New England, much like Seattle, pushed Barron around in the Super Bowl.

Veteran DE/DT Ndomukong Suh is also gone, replaced by Sebastian Joseph-Day. Los Angeles is also high on their fourth round draft pick, NT Greg Gaines from Washington. At 6-1, 310, Gaines has the ideal frame to play the “nose” in  their 34 base.

The Rams also signed Clay Matthews, the former Packers all-pro who can still bring the heat from the edge at OLB. Former first-round pick Dante Fowler can be a force at the WILL position, a spot from which defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will look to turn the former Jaguar loose: EDGE pressure off the weak-side. Fowler came on strong in the playoffs, and looks like to be a mainstay at that position.

Veteran safety Eric Weddle replaces the athletic but often inconsistent Lamarcus Joyner at FS. The addition of Weddle should help to improve the play of cornerback Marcus Peters, a playmaking weapon on the perimeter who was plagued at times in 2018 by blown assignments and double moves.

We chose to take a look at this particular game, as we believe Seattle’s offense was closest thing the Rams faced to Carolina’s versatile approach  offensively in 2018. Here’s a closer look at how the Rams fared against such an offense:

 

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Much was made of Sean McVay’s offense as his Los Angeles Rams prepared to take on Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots in Super Bowl 53. The main question: could the Patriots’ veteran secondary lock down—or even slow down—the Rams wideouts.

Mission accomplished.

Belichick’s defense, led by then-defensive coordinator Brian Flores, nearly pitched a shutout against the prolific Rams.

• 3 points allowed
• 260 total yards allowed
• 4 sacks
• 1 interception
•  3-of-13 allowed on 3rd down

One of LA’s three third-down conversions came courtesy of a defensive holding call.

With Carolina hosting the defending NFC champions in six days, we wanted to zone in specifically on the third down defensive game plan for New England, and hopefully give you an understanding of what the Rams like to do in these situations.

Please, step into our film room. Let’s take a look at what the Rams offense likes to do, and what it may take to slow it down.

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Well, it’s here. The fourth preseason game. Feeling a little preseason fatigue? You may be in luck soon.

According to multiple reports, the league is considering a change in scheduling, including a shortened preseason and an extended playoffs, which would include one extra team per conference. We tend to agree with this move in principle, as the preseason seems to have run its course a bit with most coaches and personnel staff around the league. Teams are playing starters less frequently with each passing year, as has been the case in Carolina this preseason. 

As for this evening’s Panthers/Steelers tilt, very few starters will see action. It will likely be a  rather vanilla affair. However, there are still a few stories to follow:

All Eyes On Slye

A number of reports out of Charlotte today have suggested that Panthers kicker Graham Gano will begin the 2019 season on injured reserve. That leaves him eligible to return to action at the halfway-point of the regular season, clearing the way for undrafted rookie Joey Slye from Virginia Tech. We liked Slye from the first time we saw him kick in Spartanburg, noting over two weeks ago that he seems to get a lot of height on his deep kicks. This is a great asset when looking to avoid blocks. He’s also been perfect in the preseason, nailing home 6-of-6 with a 55-yarder. A touchdown-fruitful game for Carolina would be a positive for Slye—and fans of course—as this would give the rookie kicker a chance to hone his skills on extra points. Carolina has scored limited touchdowns in the preseason, and the PAT has been a bit of an issue for the Panthers since 2015: Gano has missed a league-high 12 PAT attempts over that span. It’s a big night for Slye and special teams coach Chase Blackburn.

RB3 Battle

Jordan Scarlett. Elijah Holyfield. Reggie Bonnafon. These three guys are on the bubble with presumably one spot left to grab in the running back rotation. Our projection puts veteran back Cameron Artis-Payne second on the depth chart behind the all-world Christian McCaffrey. Unless the team feels like keeping four HB’s, which they won’t, one spot is up for grabs. We feel the edge goes to Scarlett at this point, coming off a pair of strong performances against New England and Buffalo. Holyfield has been relatively silent since his two-touchdown debut at Chicago in week one of the preseason. And while we do like Bonnafon for his versatility and ball skills out of the backfield, the lack of reps during camp and with the second-team in the preseason leads us to believe the team will probably move in a different direction.

The Nickel Spot

The nickel position has been hotly contested throughout the summer. The leader in the clubhouse still appears to be Javien Elliott, but it’s a close race. Second-year defensive back Corn Elder had a solid camp and has seen extensive playing time at nickel this preseason. In terms of their big nickel package, otherwise known as “buffalo” nickel, look for one-time starting free safety Rashaan Gaulden to continue in this role. We still like Elliott long-term for the starting nickel roll. He showed the most athleticism and coverage ability in Spartanburg, and has the pertinent experience from his time in Tampa last year to come in and manage the role.