Saturday night, multiple reports across the wire confirmed the Colts all-pro signal caller—the first overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft—intends to retire from football prior to the 2019 season.
It’s a stunning development, not just for your humble analyst here, but for NFL fans around the world.
Selfishly, we were looking forward to seeing Luck battle Newton again on December 22 as Carolina is scheduled to take on the Colts in Indianapolis. Unfortunately, or fortunately—depending on your perspective—that won’t be happening.
For some time, Luck was rumored to enter the NFL Draft a year early in 2011. The feeling was he would be Carolina’s first overall pick, part of a possible “package deal” with Stanford HC Jim Harbaugh. Luck decided to stay in college for another year, and Harbaugh was hired by the San Francisco 49ers.
It all worked out. The Panthers hired Ron Rivera and drafted Newton. The two men have accounted for three division titles and a Super Bowl appearance.
Four years later, Luck and Newton met on a rainy Monday night in uptown Charlotte. This was a memorable game for many reasons: The weather. The early turnovers. Some exquisite passing from Newton. An amazing rally by Luck. Three great overtime field goals.
In the end, Carolina won the game. But it also served as a reminder: Andrew Luck was one special dude. Mentally and physically tough, fighting his way back from a 17-point deficit to tie the game. It was a treat to watch.
Here’s a look back, courtesy of ESPN and the National Football League:
It was an ugly night in Foxborough. Cam Newton’s foot was the primary casualty. According to multiple reports, it appears to be a foot sprain, and GM Marty Hurney says he is cautiously optimistic Newton will return week one.
We’ll see. In the meantime, no need to obsess over it. The man is hurt, he needs time to heal, so let it play out. We’ll let the Twitter doctors keep you up to speed.
As for the game itself. Buckle up, kids. This might hurt:
Cam Newton Must Account For His Limits
Cam Newton needs to start being more realistic about his scrambling abilities.
Mr. Newton: You are now on the flip side of 30. For an athlete, you’re an old man. It’s a fact of life, but it’s a fact you’re going to have to get used to. The days of your spectacular, Fran Tarkenton-esque escapes from 30 yards deep in the backfield are over.
It looks like you dodged a bullet this time, but you’re older, slower, and more brittle than you used to be. That’s an honest assessment. Next time, do yourself and your fans (and teammates) a favor: throw the ball away.
No Explosion. No Conversion. No Good.
Through three preseason games, Norv Turner’s vaunted offensive attack has managed a small handful of 20+ yard plays. To be blunt, the much-hyped corps of wideouts have done very little with their opportunities. Curtis Samuel, the “Shorts And Helmets MVP” of the offseason, caught 3 passes for 29 yards on six targets. D.J. Moore caught 2 passes for 11 yards on five targets.
The hope here is Turner could be hiding something for the real games, because this level of “production” isn’t going to cut it.
One thing rarely discussed, but no less significant. The “RAC” Dependency of this offense is concerning. It leads predictable, easy-to-anticipate situational football for an opposing defense.
Case in point: Carolina’s opening drive, Quarter 1, 13:25.
Moore runs a shallow cross on 3rd down and seven. New England’s safety immediately drives on the route, allowing Moore a limited opportunity for additional yardage.
This was much the case on a critical third down late in the Seahawks game from 2018, prior to Gano’s missed field goal attempt. (See below)
The Patriots, more than most teams (wonder why) have an edge on diagnosing incoming plays, but I also knew this play was coming out of our bunch set. It’s a staple of Turner’s offense. At some point, Carolina must get back to a downfield attack. If they can’t, it’s going to be hard to win more than 7 or 8 games.
Dink and dunk teams are capped in the modern era of deep ball pyrotechnics.
That, and 3rd down futility doesn’t generally translate to success in the NFL. Wow, this team is bad on 3rd down–in particular–the first halves of the last two games.
3rd down offense, 1st half vs Buf and NE: 1/12
3rd down defense, 1st half vs Buf and NE: 11/17
I mean, you don’t win games with that. You just don’t. Forget the 4-12 talk, you don’t win any games if you’re that outmatched on 3rd down.
This is from the four quarters of the preseason where most of the starters are playing, so it’s bad, and it’s even worse than you think, because Carolina’s only conversion is…..wait for it….from a penalty.
My Concerns Continue, re: 3-4 Defense
Luke Kuechly played 19 snaps last night. On 6 of those 19 snaps, he was tasked with slamming into an offensive guard or a fullback. To this observer, that’s wasting Kuechly’s athleticism on roughly 30 percent of his defensive snaps.
The good news: we saw some true 4-3 sets, with Shaq Thompson, Kuechly, and Jermaine Carter at LB. I think we’ll see more of this as the regular season progresses.
This may be an unpopular view—good thing I don’t care about popularity: the 3-4 thing is a lark, and the team needs to transition away from it as soon as possible. I voiced concerns over it in Spartanburg during one of our earlier camp reviews, and those concerns have played out on the field during the preseason. You are essentially taking some of the league’s most skilled defenders (Kuechly, Short, McCoy) and relegating them to space-eating roles.
The Team > One Man
Eric Reid can take to Twitter all he wants. I have no issue with that. He can kneel during the anthem all he wants. That’s his right.
However, when you start taking your personal grudges onto the field, targeting players with whom you have a public personal agenda at the expense of valuable field position, I have a big issue with that.
You know why? You know why I have a problem with it? Because the Super Bowl is all that matters. Winning. Execution. Football focus. That’s what matters to me. It should matter that much more to every single player on every single snap.
I apply this standard equally to everyone. I don’t like it when Newton is running around on the sidelines while the team is getting their asses handed to them by Buffalo. I don’t like the player interviews during the games.
I don’t like distractions.
You know what I like? I like wins, and anything that distracts from that goal makes me uneasy. Do you think Tom Brady and Bill Belichick would put up with this nonsense? No, they wouldn’t, because they’re winners.
Last night, you saw one team that’s all about winning, and you saw one team that would like to win, but also cares a little too deeply about making everyone feel “ok” and “comfortable” and “accepted”.
If a player is lucky, they get about 200 games in their career, including preseason and postseason. How about we take them all seriously? This opportunity doesn’t last forever, so put on your hard hat and go to work.
The minute you drag personal issues onto the field of play, you lose me.
Quick Hits
Brutal muff by Terry Godwin. He’s been my guy all month, but ball security is the most important aspect of a punt returner. We learned this the hard way with Philly Brown. One muff is too many muffs.
After a spectacular preseason opener in which the Panthers out-gained the Bears by over 120 return yards, Chase Blackburn’s units have disappeared. Multiple penalties on return team, while allowing multiple explosive returns. That needs to get corrected.
Player of the game: LB Antwoine Williams. 8 total tackles, a sack, and a TFL. I’m sad that he won’t make the team. He deserves a fair shot, but as Carolina is prone to waste roster space on suspect special teamers, he’s destined the join the fraternity of “Camp Favorites Who Never Got A Shot” (Lou Young, TJ Graham, etc.)
In summary: It sure feels as though Carolina is flying blind into the regular season. The offensive line looks unprepared, the quarterback is hobbled, and the new defense marginalizes our best defenders 30% of the time. I’m not optimistic about September. It’s shaping up to be a hot, miserable month with an untimely Thursday Night game thrown in for good measure.
But, hey, you don’t win any trophies in September. Chin up, kids.
Exhibition game number three: the “Super Bowl of the Preseason”, you could say.
Jokes aside, this game will be a great test for Ron Rivera and the 2019 Carolina Panthers. The Patriots, who will once again contend for a Lombardi Trophy (that’s 19 years running, now), have a few new wrinkles and pieces to prepare for–a rookie EDGE player from Michigan has caught our eye. More on him shortly.
On the Panthers side, tonight marks the live-game action return of the franchise’s cornerstone pieces: quarterback Cam Newton and linebacker Luke Kuechly. Both veterans have been inactive for Carolina’s two preseason games strictly as a precautionary measure.
The same goes for running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Greg Olsen, both set to start tonight.
The expectation, as we offer this analysis at lunchtime on game day, is that all four men will play this evening. However, this is the NFL, and things can change by the hour. Stay tuned.
Now, on to the six-pack:
1. Cam Newton. Let’s See It.
We have chronicled the progress of Newton through close examination from our camp coverage in Spartanburg earlier this month. Thus far, the results have been encouraging. Newton looks to have a strong handle on the offense–year two of the Norv Turner regime–taking command of the huddle with better tempo. His arm? The arm is a treat to watch in action. Day after day, Newton was dropping dimes on 7’s (post-corner routes) , 8’s (post routes) and 9’s (fly routes), lobbing gorgeous spirals with precise timing, in-step with receivers Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore and Olsen. What I took interest in, more than those throws, were the short/intermediate high-velocity rockets required from a staple of the offense: RPO outside zone play action pass. Rivera let Cam loose on these, more than we anticipated at camp. The velocity and placement looked crisp, a great sign following a much-publicized off season surgery on his throwing shoulder. We want to see a few of these throws from Cam tonight, in tight windows, to see if the muscle memory is there in live-game action.
2. Chase Winovich. Block This Guy.
In order for Newton–or any of the Panthers’ four quarterbacks—to have any chance of showcasing their array of talents tonight, Carolina must account for the man who, thus far, appears to be the steal of the 2019 NFL Draft: DE/EDGE rush terror Chase Winovich. A first-team all Big Ten star at the University of Michigan, Winovich has been relentless his first professional camp, and tore a hole through the Titans’ offensive game plan last week. Here’s a look, courtesy of the NFL:
He’s playing both right and left EDGE positions, so a wide array of Panthers tackles will get a good look at the rookie sensation. In typical Patriots fashion, Winovich is listed fourth on their depth chart. I have a sneaking suspicion that you may see New England head coach Bill Belichick employ Winovich earlier in the rotation, perhaps to neutralize the ground threat that Newton could present. Either way–this is a big-time player who offers a big-time test to Carolina’s edge blockers.
3. Allen. Grier. The other guy.
The media has largely ignored Panthers fourth-string quarterback Taylor Heinicke during camp and the preseason. But with the shoddy play last week from second-year backup Will Allen, and the seemingly perpetual struggles from third-round pick Will Grier, Heinicke has a chance to work his way closer to a roster spot with another good performance tonight. Now, will the Panthers ditch Grier–the draft pick–for the journeyman who has one career start? Highly unlikely. But let’s be clear: Grier has outplayed exactly zero quarterbacks this preseason. It’s not completely unexpected, but my expectations were certainly higher than this. He’s tossed a pair of very bad interceptions, one returned for a score. He seems to lack confidence in the pocket, often bailing for the scramble a shade too early in my view. Accuracy has been lacking, particularly on the boundary. This is a big night for the rookie. It’s also key for Allen, who may find himself more vulnerable to missing the 53-man roster with another poor performance tonight.
4. Nickel For Your Thoughts.
As the Patriots will employ a wide variety of personnel packages offensively, the battle for nickelback will begin to take shape. Off-season acquisition and camp standout Javien Elliott remains our personal favorite to land the starting role. He has picked off Newton in practice, and has come up with several impressive PBU’s. Elliott sticks in coverage, and runs in-step the quickest of the Panthers receivers in simulated action. We also want to see what Corn Elder can bring to the table against a New England offense which will rely heavily upon quick throws to slot receivers. And don’t forget about the “buffalo nickel” package, as FS Rashaan Gaulden will continue to see action against anticipated 11-personnel runs and anticipated 12-personnel pass plays.
5. Slye’s Chance to Shine
We don’t want to make too much of this, so let’s just start by saying: Graham Gano is the Panthers’ kicker. He’s earned as much, particularly on the very field from which the Panthers will play tonight: Gano authored a 48-yard walk-off game/winner against the Patriots in 2017. However, rookie replacement Joey Slye has made the best of his opportunity in place of Gano, who continues to nurse what’s being called “leg soreness”. Slye’s impressive leg boomed a 55-yard field goal against Chicago in Carolina’s preseason opener. He has a high-arc on his kicks, something we took note of early in camp. He might just be made of the stuff, mentally and physically, to be a go-to kicker in the NFL. As we continue to monitor Gano’s health, keep an eye on Slye. If he doesn’t stick here, I find it hard to believe a league plagued with poor place kicking wont find him a permanent home.
6. Hogan Returns Home.
Panthers receiver Chris Hogan spent the past three seasons as one of Tom Brady’s go-to weapons in New England, collecting a pair of Super Bowl rings in the process. It’s time to unwrap this off-season acquisition and see exactly where he fits into Turner’s offensive scheme. Hogan has seen limited targets thus far. It feels like the right time to move him around and see where he can make the biggest impact for the Panthers. Will he play the slot, a position he didn’t necessarily favor as a Patriot? Might we see Hogan on the boundary, where he led all NFL WR’s in 2018 in yards of separation at the point of catch/incompletion (4.1 yards per snap). Hogan was an active member of the punt return unit at Camp Wofford–perhaps he gets a few reps there tonight? Hogan is an important piece to what Carolina wants to do offensively in 2019. We’re eager to see him go against his former team in a key preseason audition.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET tonight. Follow along with us all game on TWITTER.
The Carolina Panthers closed Training Camp 2019–perhaps the final session ever at Wofford College–with a wide spectrum of emotions.
Though the atmosphere among fans and players was largely festive and celebratory, questions loom for the Panthers over several key positions. These concerns are aided by a stellar defensive showing from their guests, Sean McDermott’s Buffalo Bills.
Here’s a closer look at what we saw on Wednesday at the camp finale:
The best secondary in the NFL
One particular unit during this two-day scrimmage has shined: the physical, fast and heady Bills secondary. This unit is coached by John Butler and schemed up by defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier—both men employing a throwback style of corner play from the early 2000’s, it would appear. A good deal of contact, perhaps a little too much for the 2019 rule book.
But facts are facts, and no secondary played better football over the last half of 2018 than this one. By all appearances, little has changed.
Corners Levi Wallace and TreDavious White played tough up at the line, challenging Carolina’s speedy perimeter duo of Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore. In doing so, the Bills created subtle but meaningful traffic/route integrity issues—few offenses rely on precise timing more than Norv Turner’s.
The team also utilized a bit of the Bill Belichick strategy from Super Bowl 36: keeping Christian McCaffrey in containment with two defenders regularly in his wheelhouse, making contact, asserting their presence. Tight End Greg Olsen was left to deal a LB in coverage with a roaming safety up top to assist in coverage.
It’s a schematic approach worth considering when facing this offense. Not that Samuel and Moore are incapable of making big plays–quite the contrary. But McCaffrey and Olsen are the matchup cogs that make the passing game go. If you can take those two guys away and put them out of their comfort zone, you’ve got a fair chance on defense to win
Newton stands tall, pressure and all
Here’s a look at one of my favorite throws of the week: a quick slant to Samuel, beautifully covered by Hughes underneath and safety Micah Hyde over the top.
It’s the type of throw we discussed early in camp–the intermediate bullet between defenders in tight spaces. So far, we are as impressed with this as much as any other part of Cam’s game.
Newton looked solid, though there were several plays where he was unable to get the ball to his receivers due to the intensive pass rush from Buffalo.
In particular, pass rushers Jerry Hughes and Eddie Yarbrough were tenacious off the edge, coming up with a pair of simulated sacks. Samuel did get Carolina going, using his straight-line speed once again to split the safeties in a hurry-up drill for a beautiful touchdown from Newton.
Remember this name, sports fans
Tremaine Edmunds. Make a note of that name. The second-year LB from Virginia Tech made a great play on Olsen on a deep corner route, timing his jump at the perfect opportunity to knock the ball away.
Edmunds also spent much of his two-day visit shadowing McCaffrey, often times running step-for-step while eliminating the big play opportunities.
He is a freakish athlete, and will be a key centerpiece of McDermott’s intermediate-yardage defense in 2019.
Captain works his way into the mix
We did see a bit of former Panther Captain Munnerlyn split some time in the nickel position. He’s not getting all the reps yet, but don’t be surprised if he is by the end of the preseason. Much like Boston for Carolina, the 10-year vet has the familiarity with head coach Sean McDermott’s scheme and would likely be the best fit.
Elliott: the more you can do
We have chronicled the progression of camp sensation Javien Elliott, a sneaky good free-agent acquisition from Tampa Bay. Elliott has made multiple plays on defense throughout camp, coming up with a great PBU against Moore a couple of weeks ago, and then baiting Cam into a beautiful interception last week in practice. He is our front-runner at One Panther Place to land the starting nickel job when the season opens in a few weeks.
Elliott made his mark Wednesday on special teams, putting time in at the gunner position. This is an important role on this team, or any team for that matter. Elliott may have further enhanced his value through the eyes of head coach Ron Rivera with an exceptional piece of punt coverage, weaving his way past both Buffalo blockers on straight line to the punt returner.
Sometimes, you can pick up on special things in camp. I have seen enough special attributes in Elliott’s game to know that he can be a solid contributor this year, a special teams standout, at the least. Perhaps even the team’s go-to guy at slot corner.
Allen still has the edge over Grier
On the Will Grier front: not much to add on top of what we shared yesterday. As many of you know, we have been quite frank about the rookie’s lack of progression during camp. Regardless of the pushback, we report what we see, not how we feel.
In a limited round of snaps, Grier’s first two plays were scrambles, largely necessitated by poor blocking up front, and the third was a nice pass on a hook route, standing tall in a crowded pocket in doing so.
Kyle Allen moved the second unit efficiently during his first crack at the 11-on-11 scrimmage. We are seeing poise and confidence from Allen, and his arm has been on point, throwing a tight ball with consistency.
The real test comes Friday, as Grier should see plenty of snaps to improve upon his performance last week in Chicago. I would look for a healthy diet of check downs and short throws to keep his confidence up, as it just doesn’t appear that he is fully ready to read an NFL defense down the field. He has time to learn it, but you’d like to see more, soon.
That Carolina secondary? Not too shabby.
At the safety position, the Ross Cockrell experiment appears to be over. He’s working with the corners now primarily on the outside behind James Bradberry and Donte Jackson.
Tre Boston has cemented his role as the starting free safety, and as he knocks off a little rust, he’s bringing a good deal of confidence and physicality to a secondary that failed to close out several key games in 2018.
Boston also appears to have a great relationship with fellow safety Eric Reid. The two men are in constant communication prior to and during practice.
It’s good to see a pair of veteran safeties back there bonding, both of whom possess great athleticism and experience.
Boston has been a dynamic football player for the Chargers and Cardinals over the last couple years, and while he hasn’t been widely-revered by the media, he has made a good deal of impact plays, pulling in 8 interceptions since 2017.
While this may not yet be Thieves Avenue, it’s starting to take shape. If this secondary can avoid the catastrophic breakdowns they regularly endured on third-and-long last year, it could be the difference between 7-9 and 12-4.
As for the joint-practice with the Bills, Carolina’s secondary performed well. Perry Fewell’s unit did what they had to do: eliminate the explosive plays. Ultimately, that’s what you’re looking to get done—keep the ball in front if you. You do that, and the takeaways usually come.
As my HS position coach once told me, “sure as hell can’t intercept a ball 20 yards behind you.”
There was also quite a bit of small-ball from Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who completed over 75% of his passes in full scrimmage play. A good deal of those were less than 10 yards in the air, some of them perfectly horizontal. The shifty Cole Beasley was active in the slot, picked up from Dallas.
Heads up: you’ll hear and read some reporting from Buffalo that Allen “lit up the secondary.” That was hardly the case. It was all short intermediate stuff, largely due to the fact that the Panthers pass rush was consistently in the backfield. Bruce Irvin, Mario Addioson and KK Short in particular made an impact.
Speaking of pass rush specialist: rookie sensation Brian Burns was prudently held out of practice after initially planning to give it a go. According to media reports, Panthers head coach Ron Rivera believes Burns may have a shot play Friday. Your humble correspondent here feels that could be a poor decision. I would give Burns’ ankle a week off to heal, and turn him loose in the all-important third preseason game.
PSA: Beware of the generic Tweet.
It’s a good idea to be completely honest about the context of what you’re reading on Twitter from most reporters. You see, here’s the deal: reporters can’t give a lot of live-tweet detail on plays.
It’s policy.
So, for instance: you may have come across a few updates and reactions on Torrey Smith having a “big day” on Wednesday. That couldn’t be further from the truth. Smith is a good player and he’s had a pretty solid camp. However, he was the benefactor a badly-blown coverage, even looking a tad guilty as he reluctantly trotted into the end zone.
Twitter: “oh boy, here comes Torrey Smith pushing the other guys on the depth chart!”
Not really. Touchdowns are always great to score and they always look good on tape, but he didn’t create the play. It fell in his lap. Again, context.
Smoke Routes:
Versatile OL Dennis Daley, who has received considerable praise from coaches and some in the media, was seen taking several reps at left guard. He struggled mightily on this play, but was bailed-out by an Olsen one-handed snag. While I do like his potential as a 6th OL in jumbo, it’s clear Daley has some work to do before he can be trusted to play meaningful snaps at the guard position.
Rookie LT Greg Little has been given mixed reviews from a variety of sources. Some have observed that Little did a nice job Wednesday holding his own on Hughes.
Well. You know, see. Here’s the thing: no, he didn’t. Not at all.
He was routinely beaten by Hughes on the left side with a blazing speed rush, something he will face quite often at left tackle in a speed rush-heavy NFC South. I’d need to see some vast strides made in the next couple weeks before trotting him out there to defend the blind side of a franchise quarterback coming off shoulder surgery.
The Williams dilemma: Daryl Williams, who has played left and right tackle this year in camp, and in the past, is a much more natural fit on the right side. Williams has not looked particularly comfortable on the left side, even going back to last year’s season opener against Dallas before his season-ending injury. It’s better than what Little is giving them right now, but I not sold on Williams as a franchise left tackle. Particularly coming off an injury.
If anybody can work wonders, it’s a veteran line coach John Matsko. He’s done it Mike Remmers, developed Andrew Norwell into an All-Pro. Hell, he made Byron Bell halfway serviceable in 2014. Don’t underestimate the loss of Ryan Kalil. Line calls are critical, and he made them for Carolina over the past decade or so. Matt Paradis is a good player, and a fine replacement. But this whole deal may take time to mesh.
With Olsen seeing limited snaps and Ian Thomas out with an injury, Chris Manhertz snagged a touchdown and made some key contributions in the blocking game Wednesday . We chronicled Manhertz in our recent “pass catchers” piece. He’s a viable weapon in the red zone, and in a 23 personnel situation, big #82 would be a fine option for a little play action, given all the attention would be on 88, 80, 22 and 1.
There were quite a few pre-snap penalties from both teams during 11-on-11. Several came courtesy of Cam Newton’s legendary cadence. One such play, here, shows Newton utilizing a hard count to draw Jerry Hughes offsides. Solid work by Williams to maintain position. This is not an insignificant part of what Carolina does. Think back to 2015, at home against Washington. There must have been a half-dozen offsides penalties from the Redskins defensive line.
More on tonight’s game in Charlotte–later today: onepantherplace.com. Follow along with us on TWITTER all day leading up to the game, and live on Twitter for real-time analysis.